Grand National Preview by Cornelius Lysaght
Looking for the winner
As millions of people try to sort out the winner of the most famous jump-race on the planet some will rely on the formbook, but all sorts of other formulas and theories are also being polished up ready for the big occasion at Aintree.
Appropriate names are said to represent the most popular choice resulting in years like 2001 when it’s thought that a combination of Liverpool football fans and the Chinese belief that red is a lucky colour led to an unexpected hiding for the bookies when 33-1 chance Red Marauder ploughed through the mud to lead home just four finishers (two having been remounted).
It was much the same in 1992 – though at odds of 14-1 – when the giant Party Politics was successful during the final days of a General Election campaign.
Red Marauder mud-spattered and victorious in 2001.
We have all done it: despite the annual form study, the most profitable Grand National for my house came when we got the 1-2 forecast up in 1978, when Lucius narrowly beat Sebastian, as a result of having a family friend called Lucius and a cat named Sebastian. The bet returned a never-to-be forgotten £14.13 to a £1 stake which felt like a lot at a time when a pint of beer cost about 40p.
And I’m finding that mix of the sublime and the ridiculous continues as much as ever this time.
A friend with the surname Coffey who owns a Great Dane called Yeats has invested in a 50p each-way combination tricast taking in Mister Coffey, The Big Dog and last year’s 50-1 winner Noble Yeats.
I haven’t commented, but Mister Coffey might be up against it because his trainer Nicky Henderson, while brilliant in other races, has had more runners depart at the first fence than finish in recent years, while The Big Dog’s exploits mean that he’s up in the weights; Noble Yeats, trained by Emmet Mullins for owner Robert Waley-Cohen, is however a different matter altogether.
He is perhaps the most intriguing runner due to face the four and a quarter mile, Randox Health-sponsored challenge with its thirty fences and £1 million purse.
Noble Yeats will be looking to secure back-to-back victories after last year's win.
Jockey Sean Bowen is now in the saddle replacing the owner’s amateur jockey-son Sam, who retired after flashing triumphantly by the finishing line, as the horse attempts to secure a rare place in Aintree history as only the third since the Second World War to win back-to-back Grand Nationals, after Red Rum (1973/74) and Tiger Roll (2018/19).
And the interest grows from there: twelve months ago he had to smash a previously terrible statistic for seven-year-olds, none of whom had won since Bogskar in 1940, but now he’s in an age group that has held the upper hand four times in the last seven stagings.
In addition, a solid Cheltenham Festival performance is considered a major plus and the eye-catching fourth in the Gold Cup when storming home from way behind puts a big tick in the form box.
The concern has to be a miles higher position in the weights, which translates to 11 stone 11 pounds compared to 10-10 last season – the last time quite so much weight was carried to victory was by Red Rum.
Red Rum remains the only horse to have won the Grand National three times.
A glance at the results list indicates that we are probably looking for an eight or nine year-old that arrives at Aintree ‘on the up’, with good quality form, confirmed or likely stamina but still a lowish weight – and since 1999 eleven have been Irish-trained: reflecting their current supremacy, they have a vast majority of the line-up.
Cheltenham Festival third Mr Incredible, Coko Beach, last year’s Grand National eighth, Longhouse Poet (sixth in 2022) and the grey Vanillier, looking to emulate Nicolaus Silver (1961) and Neptune Collonges (2012) as the only grey winners in the post-War era, all seem to particularly fit that bill for the visitors.
For the home side, the most obvious choices look to be Le Milos, Corach Rambler – trained like 2016 winner One For Arthur by Lucinda Russell – and Our Power all of which have won major chasing prizes – respectively the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury, the Ultima Chase at Cheltenham (again) and the Coral Trophy at Kempton – en route to Aintree.
Our Power has the added advantage of potentially providing another heart-warming story at a sporting event which has spawned many: what a fillip a victory would be for part-owner Dai Walters who is still recovering after suffering life-threatening injuries in a helicopter crash in the autumn.
In that same category Any Second Now could come good after two near-misses; Lifetime Ambition is trained by Jessie Harrington who’s been undergoing treatment for cancer; Cape Gentleman has been bought by an American whose great-grandfather owned the winner 100 years ago; the Donald McCain-trained Minella Trump tries to put the family name back in lights again after Red Rum, Amberleigh House and Ballabriggs; and, of course, there is Rachael Blackmore, the first female jockey to be successful, whose mount is sure to be popular.
I’ve named about fourteen possibles, but who knows – it’s the National, the first running of which was won by a horse named Lottery. Good luck.
Rachael Blackmore, as the first female jockey to win the Grand National.